U.S. tariff policies backfire on soybean exports

In a few weeks, U.S. farmers will begin harvesting soybeans, but the world's top buyer has yet to place an order. China has not booked a single U.S. shipment for autumn, a sharp contrast to last year when purchases had already topped 13 million metric tons by this point.

The absence of orders is fueling anxiety across the farm belt. "This year's yield and weather conditions were ideal, but the lack of market will put tremendous pressure on many farmers," said Tim Maxwell, a longtime farmer in Iowa.

To break the stalemate, the U.S. government will send a delegation of farmers and agricultural exporters to Beijing this fall, the South China Morning Post reported. It will be the third annual visit as the industry pushes to secure badly needed orders.

The American Soybean Association in August issued a warning that farmers can't afford casual trade policies if China walks away. Association president Caleb Ragland said domestic and alternative markets cannot replace the gap left by Chinese demand, which has driven down prices.

A soybean farmer in Illinois load soybeans. (Photo/China News Service)

The stakes are high. In 2016, China bought 41% of its soybeans from the U.S. By 2024, that share had dropped to about 20%, Reuters reported, citing customs data. Meanwhile, China imported 74.65 million metric tons from Brazil last year, a 6.7% increase that accounted for more than 70% of its total soybean purchases, according to China's customs agency.

Beijing is also reducing reliance on foreign soybeans by adjusting feed formulas and boosting domestic output. "Procurement trends in the Chinese market carry significant weight," said Christopher A. Wolf, an economist at Cornell University. "Tariffs have caused intense volatility and uncertainty for U.S. farmers."

The crisis extends beyond soybeans. According to a BBC report, since U.S. President Donald Trump announced so-called "reciprocal tariffs" in April, China's orders for U.S. agricultural products have plummeted. Bloomberg data show bankruptcy filings among small farm businesses reached a five-year high in July.

Chicago-based AgResource Company predicts that without Chinese purchases before mid-November, the U.S. could lose 14 to 16 million metric tons in sales this year.

Farmers say the pressure is mounting. "It's time to lower tariffs," some Midwest growers who once backed Trump told reporters.

Trump himself struck a different note earlier this year. In March, he touted an approaching "bumper harvest" on social media, just before announcing the tariffs. Six months later, the harvest has indeed arrived—but the orders have not.

(By Zhang Dongfang - China News Service)